Back in 2005, the U.S. experienced the worst hurricane season in history, including Hurricane Rita, Hurricane Emily, and, most notoriously, Hurricane Katrina. At the time, this was widely heralded as stunning evidence for global warming, which according to many models should result in bigger and more frequent hurricanes. Indeed, Hurricane Katrina alone appears to have tipped the balance for public concern over global warming—thanks in part, predictably, to more dire warnings from Al Gore.

This is garbage of course—or, to put it more precisely, small-number statistical garbage. I’ve blogged before about global warming, and I’m on record saying it’s real, but there’s no way we can conclude from one or two hurricane seasons that global warming is the culprit. To wit: according to a recent report, over the last two years (since the record-setting 2005 season) the United States has experienced virtually no hurricanes.

I have a prediction: there will be no flood of articles retracting all the other articles, saying “Maybe global warming can’t be blamed for Katrina after all.” We certainly won’t have speculation that the lack of hurricanes is evidence against global warming. And I bet Al Gore won’t utter a peep about it.

N.B. You gotta love journalists:

Despite alarming predictions, the U.S. came through a second straight hurricane season virtually unscathed, raising fears among emergency planners that they will be fighting public apathy and overconfidence when they warn people to prepare for next year.

How’s that for a manufactured crisis?