(Part 1 of 4)

Warning: may cause future shock

I’m interested in a variety of (possibly not-so-)crazy futurist stuff. Most of it falls under the category of “transhumanism”, a philosophy that emphasizes the value of human beings (as in classical humanism) together with the transformative power of technology (which may eventually allow humans to transcend their current biological and cognitive limitations). The World Transhumanist Association FAQ is an articulate and mind-bending introduction to transhumanism and related ideas, and it greatly repays careful study and contemplation. My favorite brand of transhumanism is extropianism, which emphasizes the spontaneous emergence of order and the importance of individual liberty.

The Two Big Things in this area (in my view) are nanotechnology and artificial intelligence. In both cases, there is an essential theme:

Many proposed advanced technologies (including nanotechnology and artificial intelligence) are consistent with physical law. Their successful realization is hence a problem of practice, not principle—and therefore probably a matter of when, not if.

Often, arguments against the “feasibility” of nanotechnology and artificial intelligence—that is, against the possibility of the short-term development of these technologies—imply that the technologies themselves are impossible. This is reminiscent of early arguments against heavier-than-air flight or rocketry: well-meaning scientists and engineers pointed out that, e.g., a heavier rocket would need more fuel, which would further weigh down the rocket, requiring still more fuel, etc., etc. These arguments were perfectly correct, since the technical barriers were indeed high, but they obscured the underlying issue: no physical principle prohibits the existence of airplanes or rockets. Eventually, advances in technology answered all their objections, and many ended up looking foolish.

Of course, simply because a technology is possible doesn’t mean that it will be developed on a reasonable timescale. Making timelines and projections is a tricky business, but there are many reasons to believe that the technology envisioned by transhumanists will arrive some time this century. A good web resource on this subject is Ray Kurzweil’s essay on the Law of Accelerating Returns; I also highly recommend Kurzweil’s books The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near. I would be surprised if Kurzweil’s predictions are correct in their details, and he may be off by decades in some of his bolder claims, but he marshals convincing arguments in support of his central thesis: our naïve linear intuition leads to systematic underestimates of exponential technological change. As a result, many dramatic technological advances will happen much sooner than most people expect.